When Polls Are Wrong: Revealing Ed Gillespie’s Path to Virginia Victory

The poll averages, the experts, and the media all say that Ed Gillespie will lose in Virginia on Tuesday. Here’s how he could beat the polls and win anyway.

Dewey Defeats Truman. Via Dave Winer on Flickr.

While it is true that the polls have crunched close, and Republican Ed Gillespie has even won a few, the poll average definitely favors Democrat Ralph Northam to be the next Governor of Virginia, replacing career Democrat operative Terry McAuliffe (Virginia has a one term limit).

But there are indicators to make us believe that he can win. First, the Democrats are running frankly insane ads, showing a great deal of desperation. This makes us believe they know something that makes them worry, beyond a few Republican-leaning polls going against them.

What the Democrats may believe, is what the Republicans also seem to believe: that Ed Gillespie will in the northern Virginia exurbs, where they just brought out Marco Rubio to campaign for him. But there’s also another factor working for Gillespie and against Northam: enthusiasm.

While Ed Gillespie is no Donald Trump, and in fact beat the Trump faction in the primary, his path to victory is a lot like Trump’s. He can reach disaffected voters, and he has an opponent that is creating disaffected voters.

What disaffected voters can he reach? Well, northern Virginia has many Republican voters, but they’re not the kind who wave Confederate flags and wear Make America Great Again hats.

These are establishment Republicans, many of whom actually work in DC and move the levers of power in the party and in government. They don’t like Trump, and the chance to vote for someone who’s not Trump, and stands for things Trump opposes, may give them reason to be happy, and be motivated to go vote. Marco Rubio (who won DC, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William in the 2016 primaries) is a great man to bring out to reach voters like this.

At the same time, though, the Democrats have a real problem. They had their own contested primary, in which Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam beat hard left activist Tom Perriello. Bernie Sanders endorsed Perriello. Ralph Northam twice voted for George W. Bush before becoming a Democrat to run for office. Northam won 56-44 after a bitter contest.

Northam may have won, and Perriello may have immediately endorsed him, but this has left the party in a state much like the Democrats were left in after their 2016 primary cycle. People who are excited for extreme socialist principles just have no reason to get excited for their candidate. Ralph Northam is almost certainly to the right of Hillary Clinton even. So their voters just might not even show up, hence the crazy ads trying to pin Donald Trump on Ed Gillespie.

It all boils down to two counties. Ed Gillespie must follow in the footsteps of former President George W. Bush, and former Governor Bob McDonnell. Those are the last two Republicans to win at the top of the ticket in Virginia. They both won the two key northern Virginia exurb counties of Loudoun and Prince William, both outside the Beltway on the fringes of the Washington DC area. If Ed really is ahead there, he’ll beat the polls and win the whole thing.

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When Polls Are Wrong: Revealing Ed Gillespie’s Path to Virginia Victory

The poll averages, the experts, and the media all say that Ed Gillespie will lose in Virginia on Tuesday. Here’s how he could beat the polls and win anyway.

Dewey Defeats Truman. Via Dave Winer on Flickr.

While it is true that the polls have crunched close, and Republican Ed Gillespie has even won a few, the poll average definitely favors Democrat Ralph Northam to be the next Governor of Virginia, replacing career Democrat operative Terry McAuliffe (Virginia has a one term limit).

But there are indicators to make us believe that he can win. First, the Democrats are running frankly insane ads, showing a great deal of desperation. This makes us believe they know something that makes them worry, beyond a few Republican-leaning polls going against them.

What the Democrats may believe, is what the Republicans also seem to believe: that Ed Gillespie will in the northern Virginia exurbs, where they just brought out Marco Rubio to campaign for him. But there’s also another factor working for Gillespie and against Northam: enthusiasm.

While Ed Gillespie is no Donald Trump, and in fact beat the Trump faction in the primary, his path to victory is a lot like Trump’s. He can reach disaffected voters, and he has an opponent that is creating disaffected voters.

What disaffected voters can he reach? Well, northern Virginia has many Republican voters, but they’re not the kind who wave Confederate flags and wear Make America Great Again hats. These are establishment Republicans, many of whom actually work in DC and move the levers of power in the party and in government. They don’t like Trump, and the chance to vote for someone who’s not Trump, and stands for things Trump opposes, may give them reason to be happy, and be motivated to go vote. Marco Rubio (who won DC, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William in the 2016 primaries) is a great man to bring out to reach voters like this.

At the same time, though, the Democrats have a real problem. They had their own contested primary, in which Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam beat hard left activist Tom Perriello. Bernie Sanders endorsed Perriello. Ralph Northam twice voted for George W. Bush before becoming a Democrat to run for office. Northam won 56-44 after a bitter contest.

Northam may have won, and Perriello may have immediately endorsed him, but this has left the party in a state much like the Democrats were left in after their 2016 primary cycle. People who are excited for extreme socialist principles just have no reason to get excited for their candidate. Ralph Northam is almost certainly to the right of Hillary Clinton even. So their voters just might not even show up, hence the crazy ads trying to pin Donald Trump on Ed Gillespie.

It all boils down to two counties. Ed Gillespie must follow in the footsteps of former President George W. Bush, and former Governor Bob McDonnell. Those are the last two Republicans to win at the top of the ticket in Virginia. They both won the two key northern Virginia exurb counties of Loudoun and Prince William, both outside the Beltway on the fringes of the Washington DC area. If Ed really is ahead there, he’ll beat the polls and win the whole thing.

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Democrat Lead COLLAPSES in New Virginia Poll

For months, Democrat Ralph Northam looked to be cruising to a win, set to be Virginia’s next Governor. But as election day nears, his lead is falling fast.


In this combination photo, Republican gubernatorial candidate, Ed Gillespie appears at a debate at the University of Virginia-Wise in Wise, Va., Oct. 9, 2016 , left, Libertarian candidate for Virginia governor Cliff Hyra appears during an interview in Richmond, Va., on Sept. 22, 2017 and Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam appears during an interview in Richmond, Va., on Sept. 18, 2017. The major party candidates in Virginia’s closely watched race for governor are both promising to improve the state’s health care system. But Gillespie and Northam differ sharply on how to curb costs and increase care. Hyra favors less government intervention in the health care system. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

Ed Gillespie, the Republican, isn’t winning the race, but he’s competitive. Despite the crazy-looking Quinnipiac polls which show Northam up by double digits, with a rising lead, every other poll shows Gillespie getting close.

Washington Post’s own poll has Northam’s lead collapsing. Just a few weeks ago, WaPo had Northam up 53-40, for a big 13 point lead. But now the lead is down to 49-44 in their new poll this week. A 5 point lead, down from that 13, is a gigantic drop.

Gillespie has the momentum. But he’s never won a race in his life, and the Democrats are running desperate, lunatic ads against him. Can he finish strong?

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Breaking: Trump Breaks Radio Silence, Tweets About Manafort!

Live on Twitter, Donald Trump is responding to the Manafort charges. Take a read!

President Donald Trump speaks about Iran from the Diplomatic Reception Room at the White House in Washington, Friday, Oct. 13, 2017. Trump says Iran is not living up to the “spirit” of the nuclear deal that it signed in 2015, and announced a new strategy in the speech. He says the administration will impose additional sanctions on the regime to block its financing of terrorism. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Here are the tweets themselves:

Defensive, much? Why not be glad the swamp is being drained, Mister President?

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How the Alt Right Recruits Kids, and How Parents Can Fight It

Like the Communists and Anarchists, the White Nationalist movement in America has a strategy to recruit young people. Here’s what it is, and how parents can fight back.


The Nazi/White Nationalist/Alt Right movement in America has never been a simple one. From the beginning, in the early days of George Lincoln Rockwell and his American Nazi Party – the forerunner of David Duke’s organizations – had an intentional plan of action. They knew that after World War II, that America would reflectively reject any Nazi-like ideology. Now, they claimed it was a Jewish conspiracy to keep them down, but regardless, they felt it their primary goal to break through the national desire to black them out.

So they instituted what they called Phase One. The tactics they used in Phase One were designed to force media coverage of them. So they acted in the most ridiculous way possible, as parodied in the movie The Blues Brothers in fact. They dressed up in full Nazi regalia, and marched in the most open way possible. By being as repulsive as possible, they get media attention they’d otherwise never get.

Over the years, as technology and attitudes have changed, so have their strategies changed. The Internet in particular gives the fringe ideologues an opportunity break through the mainstream press and talk directly to anyone and everyone. So they’re talking to kids.

Education Week of all places has the latest warning. Erik Erikson (not that one) said that adolescence leads to rebellion, as an exploration and creation of identity. And well, in 2017 being a racist, ‘race realist,’ ‘red pilled,’ or whatever you want to call it, is a way to get instant reactions from folks.

The alt right leadership is taking advantage of this, too. They go onto forums like 4chan, an anonymous image posting board, and hijack ideas and “memes” posted there, to push their ideas. Pepe the Frog (pictured) is one of those. He got turned from a weird joke into a symbol of white nationalism, his sadness representing the failure of the movement in recent decades.

I’ve long said the Internet is no place for kids, as adults should not get unfettered access to manipulate children. I used to say that primarily with respect to scammers and sexual predators. It turns out though that ideological predators are just as great a threat. They start small, tempting kids to be “anti-PC.” They take the lunacy of the hard left, which kids see every day in schools, and use that as the wedge in.

Then they make that “anti-PC” message start to include Nazi messages. A big one repeated over and over, to try to get the kids dulled to the notion, is “Hitler did nothing wrong.” Trolls try to include that message on online votes (akin to the “Boaty McBoatface” incident) in a way that most kids think is just a prank, but is actually meant to inoculate the kids to accepting that concept later. Words mean things, folks.

Another example of this kind of “prank” or “social experiment” was Youtube star “Pewdiepie” posting a video that featured the repeated message “Death to all jews.” Just a prank, bro.

From there it gets more advanced. They post (often lying) images trying to portray the media as Jew-controlled. They post misleading accounts of news events. They pump up Donald Trump and other leaders as super men, tough guys to emulate. The messages go from pranks to intended, creating a new core cadre who then spread the same “memes” as a “joke” to the next generation. They are now “red pilled,” in a reference to the movie The Matrix.

That’s why it matters that Donald Trump doesn’t condemn them much. The fascists want to use him as a way to get kids to listen to them. But even if the President is a bad role model, it’s on parents to watch for this stuff. Even a kid’s jokes can have serious messages behind them.

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Ed Gillespie Strings Together Poll Momentum in Virginia

I’ve been harsh on Ed Gillespie’s lackluster campaign in Virginia, but improbably enough, this polling shows him behind by much less than before!


In this combination photo, Republican gubernatorial candidate, Ed Gillespie appears at a debate at the University of Virginia-Wise in Wise, Va., Oct. 9, 2016 , left, Libertarian candidate for Virginia governor Cliff Hyra appears during an interview in Richmond, Va., on Sept. 22, 2017 and Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam appears during an interview in Richmond, Va., on Sept. 18, 2017. The major party candidates in Virginia’s closely watched race for governor are both promising to improve the state’s health care system. But Gillespie and Northam differ sharply on how to curb costs and increase care. Hyra favors less government intervention in the health care system. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

Republican Ed Gillespie went 6 months without beating Democrat Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam in a poll. Six months is a long time not even to get a freak outlier your way. But in the last two weeks he’s now won three of the last six polls!

That’s a last minute shift. The newest two are The Polling Company at Gillespie +2 and Christopher Newport University at Northam +7.

The poll average still favors Northam, especially since that TPC poll is from a Republican leaning company. But still, Gillespie looks like he has a better chance of winning than he did all this year, which is good timing for him and the Republicans.

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Can This New Virginia Poll Possibly Be True?

Next month Virginia votes to choose a new Governor. A new poll has come out that’s so different, if it’s true it’s an earthquake.


FILE – In this Tuesday, March 21, 2017 photo, Republican gubernatorial candidate, Ed Gillespie, gestures during a kitchen table discussion at a private home in Toano, Va. Gillespie faces fellow Republicans, State Sen. Frank Wagner, and Corey Stewart in the June 13th primary. Virginia primary voters will select candidates for the nation’s marquee race for governor, without any recommendations so far from President Donald Trump or former President Barack Obama on who to vote for. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

This is about the best possible news Republican Ed Gillespie could get. Democrat Ralph Northam has been winning the polls consistently. All but two ties and one slight Gillespie lead have gone to Northam until today.

But Hampton University did their own poll and the result is wild: Gillespie 41, Northam 33, an 8 point lead for the Republican, in a race where the poll average gives a 4 point lead to the Democrat!

Amazingly to me, this same poll has Trump disapproved of 56-39, but has Gillespie sizably ahead.

But what makes this poll strange and questionable beyond even the top line result, is the huge number of allegedly undecided voters. 27% don’t have a leaning yet? I’m skeptical, but time will tell.

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FBI Director Wray: The Constitution is to be Respected in Moderation

You know the Bill of Rights and the rest of the Constitution? FBI Director Christopher Wray thinks they need to be compromised instead of respected strictly!


F.B.I director Christopher Wray is shown before speaking to reporters during a dedication ceremony for the new Atlanta Field Office building Thursday, Oct. 12, 2017, in Atlanta, (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

FBI Director Wray wants you to think Apple is the issue when they make iPhone encryption so good, that the FBI has trouble breaking into one. But it’s not. The issue is FBI’s mindset of entitlement to have complete access to your personal information on demand:

Wray adds that he believes that there needs to be some kind of balance between public safety and encryption, but whether or not tech companies or the public feels the same way is a different story. “I get it, there’s a balance that needs to be struck between encryption and the importance of giving us the tools we need to keep the public safe. The threats that we face keep accumulating, they are complex, they are varied.”

Sorry, there’s no balancing against the Constitution. You must resign immediately if you refuse to obey it. The Fourth amendment says “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated” and the right to encrypt our data in a secure manner helps us be secure in our papers and effects.

The people are sovereign citizens. We are not subjects with an obligation to make ourselves easily searched on demand by a police state.

Molon Labe, Christopher Wray. Molon Labe.

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New Poll: Establishment Sinking Roy Moore in Alabama?

Roy Moore’s team is already talking up the “only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Is he worried about the establishment sinking him?

Former Alabama Chief Justice and U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore, talks to constituents before a Republican Senate candidate forum, Friday, Aug. 4, 2017, in Pelham, Ala. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

WBRC in Birmingham conducted a poll of the Alabama Senate special election between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones. Some have said Moore, being outspoken on many issues, would endanger the seat. That’s usually code for the establishment sabotaging the anti-establishment candidate, such as when the DC circuit abandoned Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia.

The good news for Roy Moore is that he’s solidly ahead 51-40. Trump approval sits at 55-45 in the state, with 93% of Moore voters liking Trump, while only 13% of Jones voters approve of the President.

That’s a shocking number and suggests that the establishment isn’t really the problem, as much as the Trump endorsement of Luther Strange is continuing to cause problems for the state.

Regardless though it looks like Moore is a lock to win.

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Apple’s Tim Cook Pledges Full Cooperation with Trump Immigration Law

In defending Apple’s recent pro-censorship activities in China, Tim Cook pledged to obey the law everywhere, including the United States.


FILE – In this April 30, 2015, file photo, Apple CEO Tim Cook responds to a question during a news conference at IBM Watson headquarters, in New York. CEOs of major companies are taking stands about the results of the November 2016 U.S. election, a departure from the traditional model of not mixing politics with business that the major brands have long espoused. Cook is telling his employees to “keep moving forward.” (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)

Apple deliberately shut down Chinese users’ access to Virtual Private Network (VPN) software, which is used to bypass government censorship, and to let the anti-Communist resistance get access to the truth.

His weak response is that he and Apple follow the law everywhere they do business. Which is great, except that Apple has been constantly pushing to change American laws they don’t like. So let’s put it in stark terms: Tim Cook is now saying he will abide by the letter of every immigration law Donald Trump puts into effect.

It’s time to hold him to this. If he’s going to capitulate to Communist LGBT-imprisioning tyrants, then we’re going to hold him to following just American laws, as well.

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